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Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide, by David Vose
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Risk Analysis concerns itself with the quantification of risk, the modeling of identified risks and how to make decisions from those models. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) using Monte Carlo simulation offers a powerful and precise method for dealing with the uncertainty and variability of a problem. By providing the building blocks the author guides the reader through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most modeling problems. A wide range of solved problems is used to illustrate these techniques and how they can be used together to solve otherwise complex problems.
- Sales Rank: #344690 in Books
- Published on: 2008-04-28
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.63" h x 1.86" w x 7.64" l, 3.43 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 752 pages
From the Inside Flap
The Ten Commandments to quantitative risk analysis Morgan and Henrion, 1990
* Do your homework with literature, experts and users
* Let the problem drive the analysis
* Make the analysis as simple as possible, but no simpler
* Identify all significant assumptions
* Be explicit about decision criteria and policy strategy
* Be explicit about uncertainties
* Perform systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
* Iteratively refine the problem statement and analysis
* Document clearly and completely
* Expose to peer review
From the Back Cover
Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide is a comprehensive guide for eh risk analyst and decision maker. based on the author's extensive experience in solving real-world risk problems, this book is an invaluable aid to the risk analysis practitioner. by providing the building blocks of risk-based thinking the author guides the reader through the steps necessary to produce a realistic risk-based thinking the author guides the reader through the steps necessary to produce a realistic risk analysis and offers general and specific techniques to cope with most common and challenging risk modelling problems. A wide range of solved examples is used to illustrate these technique and how they can be put together to make the best possible risk-based decisions.
The third edition of this highly regarded text has been thoroughly updated and expanded considerably with five new chapters for the risk manager, including how to plan and assess the quality of risk analysis, as well as new chapters for this risk analysis, as well as new chapters for the risk analysis modeller on summation of random variables, causality, optimization, insurance and finance modelling, forecasting, model validation and common errors, capital investment and microbial risk assessment. This new edition provides a greater focus on business and includes applications in a wide range of different settings.
Key Features:
- Breaks down techniques into types of modelling issues (like distribution fitting, correlation and time series forecasting) and then applies them with easy-to-follow examples.
- Explains powerful and proven Monte Carlo simulation and numerical techniques for dealing with uncertainty.
- Includes recent innovations in modelling like fast Fourier transforms and copulas.
- Over 150 examples models and over 400 illustrations.
- Written in an informal manner with a practical rather than academic focus.
- Discusses the planning, uses and abuses of risk analysis.
- Includes a compendium of almost eighty distribution types and their uses.
About the Author
David Vose is senior partner of Vose Consulting, a risk analysis consulting, software and training firm with offices in the US, Europe and Russia. He has worked in risk analysis since 1988 in an extensive range of industry and government problems from insurance, banking, corporate finance, food safety, nuclear power, and epidemiology to oil and gas, construction, utilities, and general commerce. he has co-authored and edited several international guidelines on risk. A charismatic speaker, David gives frequent public and in-house risk analysis seminars. David has served as expert witness in a variety of high profile court cases. A keen squash player, he lives with Veerle and their two children in Ghent, Belgium and dreams of one day owning an old Bentley when there's room in the garage..
Most helpful customer reviews
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Content not matching Price
By Niclas F
The content is Good but i would expect more if you consider the Price.
Also they promoted some software which is good but this should lower the price due marketing incomes...
However it is a good book!
Nic
8 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Needed a Name Chage to Reflect Content Changes
By Tim Clouse
The changes from the first two editions to the third one are so great that merely calling a new edition is an understatement. I have all three editions and most (if not all) of the negative comments concern the first two. I've gone through it several times and have yet to find any of the typos/errors that were in the previous editions.
Given the expansion that occurred in this edition, it may have been better to have re-titled it as "Quantitative Risk Analysis Techniques" or something like that.
The one (and literal) weakness in the book is that it uses adhesive binding and may lose pages before it loses its usefulness. My copy is only two years old and is already starting to flop open at a couple of spots.
As the other reviewers have noted, this is the one of the standard references and covers the broadest range of topics. It is my first recommendation to anyone wanting to know more about the field.
Update: July 22, 2014
I've had to use Gorilla tape to reinforce the backing. For the Fourth Edition, I'd be willing to pay extra for a sewn-in binding and reinforced backing.
24 of 31 people found the following review helpful.
Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide
By A Customer
I purchased this book to learn to write simulation equations in excel but only found it was a manual ( type book ) with good information for a very expensive software I did not have....If you have RISK software, it is a great book to have... I returned my copy w/o scanning the entire book.
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